The Trouble with Talking

        To understand a country you have to understand the source of its income. This epiphany came to me in Lebanon, the day I saw with my own eyes the source of income that supports Syria. I was travelling in the Lebanese mountains with an American I met in Beirut. We had hoped to do some hiking but discovered that it's impossible due to the land mines and unexploded bombs left over from the Lebanese Civil War. Not wanting to fly home with my legs in the cargo hold, we hitched a ride with a young Lebanese Christian who was on his way to Baalbek, headquarters of Hezbollah and home to the world's most magnificent Roman temple.
        At the time, Syrian army garrisons were still controlling the roads in most of the eastern half of Lebanon; a relic of the war. We were a little unsettled not knowing how Syrian soldiers abroad treat American tourists, but it was no problem, they just stopped us and tried to sell us some counterfeit U.S. twenty dollar bills. This is how the regime earns its money. Syria has a rapidly growing population settled on some very resource-poor land. What oil and gas they have is minimal and rapidly disappearing. They have little water to speak of and pretty much nothing else of value save some seriously delicious pistachios and honeydew melons. Counterfeiting, drug-dealing and weapons smuggling are really the only way the country can pay its soldiers.
        Lebanon was Syria’s cash cow. President Bashar Al-Assad and his mafia-style regime profited enormously selling weapons, drugs and fake currency to warlords, terrorists and wealthy citizenry and tourists looking for a good time. Also, a small but significant portion of Syria’s working class works in Lebanon and sends money home to support their families.
        When Syria was forced to pull-out of Lebanon in 2006, by international pressure, after the assassination of Rafik Al-Hariri, it became harder for the Syrian regime to operate its business interests. A threat to the revenue stream of a dictatorial government of Syria’s type is a threat to the stability of the whole country. With Syria in danger of becoming, in the words of Dick Cheney,”A way station run by an eye doctor”, Bashar knew he had to salvage what he could. I would not at all be surprised to find that Syria encouraged Hezbollah to start the 2006 Lebanon war, knowing that it would profit enormously through the sale of arms and ammunition. Additionally, the war made it clear to the world that if any peace is going to happen in Lebanon, Syria must get what it wants.
        So Syria can’t survive without the profit it earns exploiting Lebanon. This puts it squarely at odds with the U.S. since it threatens our friends in Lebanon and Israel and the peace of the whole Middle East. Since the Syrian regime can’t continue to exist without directly leeching-off and threatening American interests and allies, we can therefore conclude that it is and always will be our enemy. There is absolutely no set of circumstances under which the U.S. can be at peace with the current Syrian government.
        As the Middle East suffers, as it has since the fall of the Ottoman Empire, from war between its nations, civil war, war by proxy and war from direct foreign intervention; we Americans busy ourselves with a Democratic primary in which the winner will likely become the next president and thus decide the fate of much of the Middle East. The front runner, Barack Obama, has made an open pledge to meet with the leader of Syria, who is and always will be our enemy (see above). This is a terrible idea. In my featured article of the day The New Republic columnist Lee Smith explains why:

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=59337e60-8b8c-42a4-b3f9-7f2e8be27e73

[Disclaimer: The article tears into Obama in a big way. Don’t worry though, in an effort to be non-partisan I will soon be posting similar articles tearing into McCain. I Promise.]

       I agree with Smith completely. When an American president meets with our enemies he legitimizes them and gives them a window of opportunity in which to inflict evil. Obama will meet with Bashar, who will make promises that he will not keep, accept a generous aid package, pose for the cameras, and then crack down on pro-democracy activists consigning innocent men and women to torture and prison for the rest of their lives. Ditto if he goes to Iran. Ditto North Korea.
         What he doesn’t realize is that, in meeting with Bashar, he would be meeting with a seasoned manipulator with years of experience deceiving western politicians and diplomats (read the article to see how he has already used Colin Powel, Richard Armitage and Nancy Pelosi to get away with murder). Barack may be smart, but he is in no way prepared for the kind of conniving that a great liar like Bashar will thrust upon him. Bashar is from a political family that gained control of Syria through deception and violence. He was not raised from birth to be a dictator like his deceased brother was, but he has learned quickly and become very crafty. Anyone who can hold power in a place like Syria is by definition a very shrewd politician.
        Unfortunately, the tyrannical dictatorship of Bashar Al-Assad is the only regime that has a chance of keeping control of Syria right now. Should Bashar fail to suppress his people and pay his army officers by shedding Lebanese blood, they will rise against him and no one knows who (if anyone) will seize control.
        What we have here is a classic lose-lose situation. If we start talks with Syria we give them the green light to destroy Lebanon, threaten Israel, destabilize Iraq and torture dissidents. If we assassinate Bashar or invade Syria, we risk turning it into a haven for Al-Qaeda, Palestinian terrorists and Iranian-backed Shia’a militias; sort of like present-day Iraq. The best plan? Continue the fight to keep Syrian influence out of Lebanese politics. Target the Syrian regime’s economic interests and make it difficult for them to do business. Suppress their ability to threaten Israel and support Hezbollah. Keep the eye doctor in his place as president of Syria. Let him be responsible for keeping the lid on the Islamists and terrorists, but for god's sake keep him marginalized so he can’t stir up mischief. Then wait, while slowly, over the span of decades, the Syrian people become educated, form a middle-class, and are able to peacefully work themselves into the decision-making in their own country.
        Our biggest problem in Middle Eastern affairs is that we Americans underestimate our enemies. We think that because we have the biggest military, we can achieve the advantage in every theater of conflict. We think that because we’re democratic, people who hate us want to be like us. We think that because the different ethnic groups and states that form the United States can live together in harmony, that so can the ethnic groups and states of the Middle East. We fail to see that Osama Bin Laden, Mahmud Ahmedinajad, and Basher Al-Assad have consistently used our lack of expertise in Middle Eastern affairs to pull the wool over our eyes and turn our missteps into their opportunities. We think that because they are petty and cruel, that they are also stupid. We think that because they are religious fanatics, they couldn’t possibly be intelligent, effective, tenacious military and political leaders. We have to admit that in Middle Eastern affairs, the Middle Easterners are always a step ahead of us, and will always do what’s best for themselves and that often what’s best for themselves is not what’s best for the United States. No amount of talking can change that.